Updated to include Dr. Michael Bitzer's analysis - PK
When three judges told the North Carolina General Assembly to redraw legislative maps, it meant the partisan composition of the Buncombe County Commission would likely be blown up. The local districts are, by law, the same as House Districts 114, 115, and 116.
Reporter Jennifer Bowman at the Asheville Citizen-Times took the first run at examining the fallout:
Maps approved Sept. 18 by the General Assembly shift some city of Asheville precincts elsewhere and move previously elected representatives to new districts. Barring court action, the maps will become law — and will reshape commissioner districts, unless lawmakers pass a local bill that would decouple them from state lines.
As they stand now, some districts would get more representation than others. Incumbents are triple-bunked in District 3, which covers west and south Buncombe: Republicans Joe Belcher and Robert Pressley would be joined by Democrat Al Whitesides, who currently represents District 1.
Meanwhile, District 1 — it currently comprises most of Asheville — would have one representative: Commissioner Amanda Edwards, a Weaverville Democrat who was elected last year by District 2 voters.
District 2 would be represented by Democratic Vice-Chair Jasmine Beach-Ferrara, an Asheville resident, and Republican Commissioner Mike Fryar, who lives in Fairview. Both will finish their current terms next year.
Because the court said they could not look at voters' party affiliation or prior election results, lawmakers drew the maps without knowing how likely specific precincts would vote Democrat or Republican.
Currently, there are 4 Democrats and 3 Republicans. But that's likely going to change because more Asheville precincts have been moved out of the heavily-Democrat District 1 and distributed into the competitive District 2 and the Republican-leaning District 3.
Here's what Catawba College Professor Dr. Michael Bitzer found:
It does not appear a Republican will be winning a seat in the NC House or the Buncombe County Board of Commissioners.
Obviously, the candidates in these races matter - as Republican Commissioner Robert Pressley proved in his last election. He outperformed a Republican candidate for the NC House 116 who was trying to unseat Democrat Brian Turner who has held the seat by positioning himself as a moderate in a party careening towards leftism. Whether any Republican will be able to overcome this structural disadvantage remains to be seen, but I find it unlikely.
It seems Commissioner Joe Belcher's assessment is correct: "The maps give the city control of the county."
Which is what Democrats tend to call "fair."
Pete's Prep: Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2019
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- From the College Fix: UNC-Charlotte held a workshop on white privilege. Only nine students showed up.