MICHAEL MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT
LOCATION...24.1N 85.9W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect along the southeastern coast of the United States from Fernandina Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina.
The Government of Cuba has changed the Hurricane Warning for the province of Pinar del Rio to a Tropical Storm Warning and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Isle of Youth.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 85.9 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and tonight. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern United States.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).